I’m
guessing I don’t really have to remind you that the French Open, the year’s
second Grand Slam, begins tomorrow. But just in case your mind is like a
suitcase needing a heavyweight to sit on it to close, I’ll just jog your
memory. THE FRENCH OPEN STARTS TOMORROW! That’s Sunday, May 27th.
According
to the official tournament website, you can watch the event on ESPN 2, ESPN 3, NBC, and, of course, Tennis Channel.
Click the above link to check out the very user friendly broadcast schedule
Tennis Channel put together for us.
Okay, so that's where you can check out the French live and taped, and, of course, here
is where you get my take on things, before, during and after they happen. Here’s my “before” on the women. Won't get the men done tonight. Will have to be a during I guess...
Anyway, as terrific as the tennis is
likely to be when the men take the court, I’m willing to lay odds that Rafa
Nadal or Novak Djokovic will be crowned Champion when it is all said and done. Sure
there’s always a chance for injury, and there is always the possibility of an upset,
but I wouldn’t bet on it. Of all the Grand Slam events, this one is least
likely to produce upsets and surprise winners…at least on the men’s side.
The Women’s Draw on the other
hand, is chock full of intrigue and possibilities. Can Maria Sharapova capture
another Slam? Is Agnieszka Radwanska for real? How about Victoria Azarenka, or
Serena Williams? Are they healthy and ready to challenge for the Cup?
Victoria Azarenka preparing for French- photo courtesy of Dan Istitene- Getty Images |
Vika (Azarenka) is seeded
No.1 and still the top-ranked woman in the world. She started 2012 the way Djokovic
started 2011, winning the first four events of the year that she played,
including the Australian Open, before losing in the Quarters at the Sony in
Miami. Since Miami, she has lost in two Finals and withdrew from her last
event, Rome two weeks ago.
Reviewing the Draw, it seems
unlikely that Azarenka will exit before the quarters, but that is only if the
shoulder injury she claimed in defaulting in Rome a couple weeks ago is either
healed or was a convenient explanation for pulling out of Rome.
Maria Sharapova at 2011 French Photo courtesy of KT at Flickr |
One of those finals losses
Vika suffered was to Maria Sharapova, who is ranked No.2 in the world and
seeded second at Roland Garros. Sharapova is arguably the hottest player right
now on the Women’s Tour. She has played in the Final of four of the five events
she has played since the beginning of March.
In her last three events,
Maria beat Vika in the Final of Stuttgart, Lost to Serena Williams in the
Quarters of Madrid, and beat Na, Li (Lee Nah) in the Final of Rome last week.
She was shaky enough in that win to give me pause about her chances if she runs
in to Agnieszka (Aga) Radwanska, Serena, or Vika, but she has been right in the
thick of things all year. As in boxing, you can’t rule out a slugger, and Maria
is that…along with a screecher.
Agnieszka Radwanska- Photo courtesy of AP |
Aga Radwanska usually flies
under the radar, and I don’t believe this time around is any exception to that
rule. In four of Radwanska’s first six events of 2012, the sizzling Azarenka
sent her home, she pulled out of one, and won the other. And then she won
Miami, beating Sharapova in the Final, and lost in the semis of her next two
events to…yeah, you guessed it, Azarenka.
I’m thinking that Aga just
didn’t want to meet Azarenka again in Rome, where she lost to Petra Cetkovska
in her first match, the first time all year she has lost to anyone other than
Azarenka, and the first time she had lost in her first match. Aga bounced back
to take the title in Brussels last week, but, again, you guessed it: Azarenka
wasn’t there.
Radwanska has an outside
chance at Roland Garros, but she would have to get past a much tougher draw
than Azarenka has to reach the Semis, then face a possible matchup with Azarenka
in the there. Did I say an “outside chance?” Wayyyy outside…
Serena Williams gets ready for French Open- Photo courtesy of AP |
If it weren’t for the facts
that No.5 Seed Serena Williams won her only French Open title a decade ago, and
one never knows how healthy she is, she would be my pick to win Roland Garros…but
then she’d be my pick to win just about everything. How do you bet against the
woman who has more than three times as many Grand Slam singles titles than
anyone else in the draw except her sister…who hasn’t won anything since 2010,
and a Slam since 2008.
After thrashing Azarenka in straight
sets in Madrid earlier this month, Serena pulled out of Rome after winning her quarterfinal
match, 4-0, Ret. Her reason for withdrawing from the semifinal match against
Na, Li was “feeling a little pain” in her back. Serena generally has a pain,
real or otherwise, somewhere, and will probably bring the pain, along with her
17-match win streak, to the French. Serena’s
my odds on favorite.
Petra Kvitova Photo courtesy of www.desktopwp.com |
But there are others I need
to mention. Petra Kvitova is seeded fourth, but she has the proverbial snowball’s
chance of winning this thing. Since her Wimbledon victory last year, she hasn’t
done much winning. No.7 Seed Na Li and No.10 Angelique Kerber present as much of
a threat as anyone outside of my four favorites (Serena, Azarenka, Sharapova,
Radwanska).
Li is the defending French
Open Champion and although she lost a tight one to Sharapova in Rome last week,
she showed that at least her physical game is up to snuff. Whether she can
figure out how to close the deal in a close one, we’ll have to see.
Angelique Kerber Photo courtesy of www.Zimbio.com |
Kerber has
some good wins this year (Sharapova, Wozniacki, Kvitova), indicating that she
has enough game to compete with the big girls. However, she hasn’t had a
break-out event yet, and although it isn’t likely, she couldn’t pick a better
stage to announce herself.
Caroline Wozniacki- Photo courtesy of www.Zimbio.com |
Remember Caroline Wozniacki? She
was the much maligned World No.1 who hadn’t won a Grand Slam, the Dane who fell
a bit short of being great…Well Caroline is seeded ninth and no one even
mentions her as a threat to win the event, but I’m giving her a dark-horse (as
in midnight black) chance to win Roland Garros.
No.6 Seed Sam Stosur made it
to the Final in 2010 and won the U.S. Open last year, but hasn’t beaten anyone
of note this year, making to one semi and one final in 2012. She is as long a
shot or longer than anyone else seeded in the top ten.
Venus WIlliams- Photo courtesy of www.tennisserver.com |
Other than Serena, no
American women figure to factor in the proceedings in Week 2. Venus
Williams is the most valid threat to reach the second week of play, showing
in Rome that she is regaining form by reaching the quarters before losing to
eventual winner Sharapova.
Christina McHale- Photo courtesy of Flickr.com |
Twenty-year-old Christina
McHale represents the most accomplished of the young American talents in
the Draw, having reached the third round of the U.S. Open and the second round
of Wimbledon in 2011. McHale is ranked 36th but is 29th
in the WTA Tour 2012 Singles Race.
Sloane Stephens- Photo courtesy of WTAtennis.com |
There are other young
American women creeping into the WTA picture, including Sloane
Stephens and Lauren
Davis, both 19, and Jamie Hampton
at 22. None is likely to make Roland Garros her coming out party, but they bear watching just the same. Vania
King and Bethanie
Mattek-Sands, both seasoned veterans, comprise the rest of the American
contingent competing in Paris.
Well it's getting late so I had better get this published. Hope to be able to provide updates and analysis as the event progresses. Game, set, match...T. A.